False assumptions of the USS

Article published in the THES

Last week, the Employers Pension Forum published “Proposed Changes to USS – Myths, Misconceptions and Misunderstandings”. The document contains misinformation and a mistake. We focus on the section “M7: The assumptions used to value the fund have been chosen to artificially create a large deficit”.

Having reviewed the assumptions given in the 2013 annual report, we believe, as statisticians and financial mathematicians, that each assumption is inadequately justified and that cumulatively they are unreasonably pessimistic and incoherent. The predicted salary increases assume a buoyant economy while investment returns assume a recession.

For example, the average annual rate of return on assets achieved by the Universities Superannuation Scheme over the past 10 years was about 7 per cent and over the past five years about 11 per cent. It is therefore difficult to understand the EPF’s assertion that “since 2011…the continuing global economic challenges…have had a detrimental impact on the value of USS’ assets”.

Meanwhile, members’ wages are assumed to grow by the retail price index plus 1 per cent (taken to be 4.4 per cent) plus incremental increases. Over the past 20 years the actual rate was about 2.7 per cent, with similar growth over the past 10 years. Post-2008 rates show negative real-pay growth. The age-related assumption is wage growth (1 per cent to 4 per cent) by progress up the salary scale: anecdotally this assumption leads to higher pay growth rates than the majority of academics have experienced over the past 10 or 20 years. As the fund’s actual experience was used to give a mean retirement age of 62 years at the last valuation, it seems odd that salary assumptions do not also reflect actual experience.

The assumptions on mortality appear to be unchanged from the 2011 valuation, yet the EPF archly advances the statement that “members of the USS are living longer so the pension scheme has to pay pensions in retirement for longer than planned” as a reason for deterioration in the fund’s position since 2011.

A reasonable change in any one of these assumptions would give a lower estimated deficit. The EPF states that although changing the assumptions in this instance could affect the size of the deficit, “it cannot change a deficit into a surplus”. It takes little mathematical knowledge to recognise that this statement is wrong.

Saul Jacka, professor of statistics, University of Warwick
Peter Green FRS, professor emeritus of statistics, University of Bristol
Steven Haberman FIA, dean, Cass Business School
Jane Hutton, department of statistics, University of Warwick
John Aston, professor of statistics, University of Cambridge
Sir David Spiegelhalter FRS, Winton professor of the public understanding of risk, University of Cambridge
Charles Taylor, professor of statistics, University of Leeds
Simon Wood, professor of statistics, University of Bath
Qiwei Yao, professor of statistics, London School of Economics
Michalis Zervos, professor of mathematics, London School of Economics

 

Pensions: are the proposed changes legal?

I have received an enquiry from a member asking whether it is legal for USS to make the employers’ proposed changes to our pension. There are two issues:

  1. Can they close the Final Salary scheme and force us into another one, and
  2. Can they change our existing accrued Final Salary benefits to salary at scheme closure inflated with CPI benefits?

The short, sad answer seems to be yes to both, provided the proper consultation and governance processes are followed. Here follows my non-lawyer attempt at a longer answer.

There is some general advice to scheme operators from Pinsents.

Note the important comments in the fourth paragraph:

Even though a scheme has been closed to future accrual, in some cases
members may still retain a link to final salary. This means that although
they do not build up future benefits in the scheme, the pension benefit they
will eventually receive will be based on their salary at the date they leave
employment with the employer rather than their salary at the date of the
scheme closure. Again, checking the scheme’s rules is extremely important.

As I read the USS scheme rules, rule 79 applies, which in turn invokes rules 14 and 15. That  means that, if the scheme is wound up, the mechanism in the employers’  proposal (salary at scheme closure plus CPI) will apply.

There is some interesting (and continuing) case law from IBM about changes to  their pensions schemes; it is analysed here and here.

In a nutshell, the only way to preserve our pensions is to persuade the employers to withdraw their proposals.

Denis Nicole

USS Pensions and VC’s Letter

Dear Colleagues

I was somewhat bemused by the VC’s e-letter concerning the proposed changes to the USS pension scheme and relatedly the UCU strike ballot so I went searching for some more information (happily Professor Mike Otsuka at the LSE had already collected most of it) so here are the links for those who wish to follow them.

1.  Oxford University’s response to the USS/UUK proposals which is much more sceptical (perhaps because Oxford still has a civic structure, it seems to take it’s academics interest seriously):  https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7G5ZYL-S4zDanB4Nk9CSzJ5RlU/view?pli=1

2.  This response is informed by an analysis done by Susan Cooper, who is Oxford’s UCU Pensions Officer and also a Physics Professor there and a former member of their Council. It’s clear that her analysis had a significant impact on the position that Oxford’s senior management took.  http://www.physics.ox.ac.uk/Users/scooper/USS/2014-09%20Analysis%20of%20USS%20changes.pdf

3.  Additionally pensions expert and LSE governor Ros Altmann makes a cogent argument here:  http://pensionsandsavings.com/pensions/dont-lecture-universities-on-their-pension-scheme/

4.  For a counter-briefing on the UUK view, see Dennis Leech at Warwick’s powerpoint:  http://blogs.warwick.ac.uk/files/dennisleech/uss_bham.pptx

5.  Support for the claim that DC schemes are far more inefficient is given by a large Canadian study:  https://cpplc.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/db-vs-dc_plans_research-paper_online_20140924_rvsd1.pdf

6.  Finally on the proven incompetence/duplicity of UUK ‘fact sheets’ see these links:  http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/comment/letters/pensions-puzzle/2016381.article & http://blogs.warwick.ac.uk/dennisleech/entry/uss_employers_shown_1/

Professor David Owen

School of Social Sciences

University of Southampton

Special General Meeting – USS proposed changes

Southampton UCU held a special General meeting on 11 September to highlight the proposed changes to the USS pension scheme.  The meeting was attended by approximately 60 members and provoked a lively and interesting debate with members who showed real concern about the impact of the proposals.  After all, your pension is deferred pay – it is part of your overall pay package.

The Employers’ consultation is based on a Hybrid.  This will redefine the way that the salary link for past service is worked out from a link to the individual members’ final salary to CPI.  All future service (for all members) will be based on a core defined benefit scheme modelled on the current career-average scheme for new starters up to a cap (the example given is £40k).  Above the cap, members and employers could contribute to a defined contribution scheme.

The powerpoint presentation can be found here:

140911 Southampton UCU GM on USS

A UCU conference on USS has been called for Friday 19 September to discuss these proposals and to plan our way forward.  We will update members following this meeting.

We cannot stress enough that if these proposals go ahead they will have a serious impact on YOUR pension.  Please encourage your non-member colleagues to join UCU – the more members we have the stronger the voice.  www.ucu.org.uk/join

 

Employers’ Proposed USS Pension Changes

For several months, we have been receiving hints that all is not well with the USS Pension Fund. Government demonstrates its lack of enthusiasm for Defined Benefit schemes such as USS by setting tough rules for their solvency. According to the rules, the assets of the scheme must cover the calculated future liabilities; this is perhaps reasonable, although the scheme can call in emergency on the Employers for further contributions. The real killer is that the future value of the USS assets is calculated based on gilt yields. These have been deliberately depressed by the government through Quantitative Easing. We all know they will rise when the government stops creating money but, in the meantime, a deficit can be conjured up to justify an attack on our pensions.

Here’s the main meat of the employers’ proposals:

  • The final salary section of the USS will be closed to existing members.
  • The final salary benefits that existing USS members build up before the date the changes are implemented will be calculated based on their individual salaries at the date the changes come into force and from that date on will be increased each year in line with the Consumer Prices Index (CPI). This means that benefits at retirement will no longer be linked to a member’s final salary at retirement.
  • All members of USS—both existing Final Salary and new—will join the career revalued benefits (CRB) section of the USS for future service.
  • Benefits in the CRB section will be based on the same accrual rate as now– members will build up benefits based on the stingy accrual rate of 1/80th of pensionable salary per year. Each year their benefits will be increased in line with CPI (guaranteed up to 5% with half of any additional increase in CPI up to 15% i.e. a maximum increase of 10% per year). This is, so far, the same as the CRB scheme already imposed on newer staff.
  • Benefits in the CRB section will only apply to salary up to a  salary threshold—a fixed upper amount of pensionable pay. The THES article suggests a £100,000 threshold, but our National Pension Officer thinks £40,000 more likely. This, as you see below, will hit many of us quite hard. Pay above the threshold goes into a Defined Contribution pension.

So, if you are in the Final Salary section, the big news is that benefits already earned will not be paid out as final salary but at inflation-corrected salary as of (probably) October 2015. Anybody with a reasonable expectation of being promoted after that date will lose a lot of value in the contributions they have already earned. And you also lose out on later contributions as CRB is much less generous.

If you are (unlucky and) already in the CRB section, you will lose because of the cap on Defined Benefit contributions.

I have tried to do some sums, based on somebody who reaches the top of Level 6 (Associate Professor) at the end of 30 years service. Here’s how it looks to me:

Scheme                Pension   Lump sum     Effective value of pot
USS Final Salary      22,300    66,900              £660,100
Current USS CRB       18,100    54,200              £534,700
Employer proposals    14,500    72,500              £486,400

I have tried to compute an overall value for the USS pension as a “retirement pot”. As you can see, a CRB member loses about £48,000 from her “pot” because of the worse treatment of pay over £40,000. If you ask, I’ll try to explain the calculations, but they assume an annuity comparable to the USS pension would pay 3.5% of the “pot” and that the Defined Contribution “pot” grows at 4%.

This is all horrible, but is currently only an employer proposal. Experience from 2011, however, suggests that the employers will be able to force it through the USS consultation process. If we want to stop it, we’ll probably need to take industrial action.

Denis Nicole

Southampton UCU Annual General Meeting – 1.00pm, 19 June 2014

USS pension scheme – more proposed changes afoot

Members of Southampton UCU are invited to attend the branch Annual General Meeting which is being held from 1.00pm – 2.30pm on Thursday 19 June in room 34/3001 (education building), Highfield.

The meeting will discuss the rumoured proposed changes to the USS pension scheme.  These changes, if implemented, will have serious implications for your pensions and we would like an opportunity to hear your views.  We shall be joined by Dennis Leech, Professor of Economics at Warwick University, who will discuss the potential impact of these changes and what this means to you. 

The recent Times Higher article discusses the end of final salary pension and a move to the career average scheme, a cut of 6% in pension received under the CARE scheme and an increase in pension contributions.   Read it here:   http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/news/is-it-the-end-for-uss-final-salary-pensions/2013456.article 

Please come along and join in the discussion.

Also at the meeting, we shall be electing officers to the local Executive committee.  If you would like to nominate yourself for one of the posts please contact Amanda at ucu@soton.ac.uk for a nomination form.  Posts for election are:  President, Honorary Secretary, Membership and campaigns secretary, Honorary Treasurer, Safety officer, Environmental officer, Equality officer, fixed term contract officer, postgraduate and SUSU liaison officer, academic-related staff officer, and four ordinary member posts. 

We look forward to seeing you on 19 June.

Southampton UCU General meeting – 1pm Weds 26 March, room 27/2003

The next UCU General meeting is taking place on Wednesday 26 March from 1.00pm – 2.30pm in room 27/2003.  The main topic of the meeting will be the upcoming marking boycott and we shall be joined by Terry Hoad, UCU HE committee member.  We would encourage you to come along and share your views with us.

Living Wage – the University’s recent statement on SUSSED

Dear colleagues

Earlier today you may have seen a statement issued by the University regarding recent negotiations on the Living Wage at the University of Southampton.

We at UCU, UNISON and Unite wish to make clear that we in no way endorse this statement, and further, we believe that this statement thoroughly misrepresents the facts.  The issue of the Living Wage was first brought to the University’s attention at the Joint Negotiating Committee on 18 October 2013, following an initial FOI request sent by Southampton Living Wage Campaign on 13 August 2013.  A paper was presented on this issue at the JNC which was fully endorsed by all three unions.

At this initial JNC discussion the University responded that they would re-evaluate their position on the Living Wage only after the resolution of the 2013/2014 pay claim.  In the months since, all three unions have consistently and visibly campaigned on the Living Wage and fair pay for the lowest-paid University staff, and it is only after these months of campaigning that the University has put forward this Living Wage supplement.

Throughout this dispute, all three union branches at this University have continued to negotiate on local issues, and at no point have we ceased cooperation due to the current national situation.  The University, in contrast, has repeatedly refused to negotiate formally on local concerns for the duration of the dispute, and has told us that they have no plans to strive to be a true Living Wage Employer.

The current statement on SUSSED does not acknowledge the contribution of unions and their members at this University in bringing this issue to the fore, nor does it accept responsibility for the University’s own refusals to engage on this and other issues for the duration of the current pay dispute.

UCU, UNISON and Unite at the University of Southampton

Day of Action – 6 February 2014

On Thursday 6 February 2014, Southampton UCU, UNISON and Unite members joined colleagues across the UK in taking strike action for fair pay in UK higher education.  EIS in Scotland also participated in this joint industrial action.

Southampton University staff braved the monsoon-like weather to stand on picket lines throughout Highfield and Avenue campuses and disseminate flyers informing students and passersby about the current pay dispute.  Members also solicited signatures on a petition which is drawing attention to the issue of skyrocketing senior management pay in universities and the growing wage inequality in the sector generally.

At 11AM members gathered outside Building 37, the home of University management.  Malcolm Ace (Chief Operating Officer), Professor Adam Wheeler (Provost), and Janice Donaldson (Director of HR) come out to talk with strikers about the pay issue and listen to their concerns.  Afterward there was a brief rally before strikers were urged to make their way home, dry out and warm up!

Thanks to all who came out to join us despite the weather.  UCU will be taking further strike action for two hours on Monday from 9-11AM; please come and show your support.

Strikers outside B37

Strikers outside B37

Gathering to hear some speakers

Gathering to hear some speakers

Malcolm Ace (Chief Operating Officer) comes out to speak with strikers

Malcolm Ace (Chief Operating Officer) comes out to speak with strikers

Spirits were high despite the downpour!

Spirits were high despite the downpour!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvGwTw1XxqI

——-

Eric Silverman

Southampton UCU President

 

IMPORTANT: Information on strike action Thursday 6 Feb and feedback from 28 Jan

Colleagues

Firstly a big thank you to all of you who supported the second 2-hour walk-out on Tuesday afternoon.  It was a great day of action with around 50 members occupying the Arlott Bar for a teach-in.  Members joined in lively discussions on various important issues in higher education, including recruitment and retention at the University and concerns for the future of HE, and we rounded the strike off with a tribute to folk singer and activist Pete Seegar with a rendition of “Union Maid”.   Many of you who weren’t able to attend the teach-in withdrew your labour by cancelling classes and meetings and just absenting yourselves from your workplaces – we would ask that you help us show what impact the action is having by completing this very short survey: https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/ucustrike28thJanuary2014

A reminder that the next 2-hour walk-out is planned for Monday 10 February from 9.00 – 11.00 am.  Further details on this to follow.

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Secondly you will all be aware of the next full day of strike action planned for Thursday 6 February.  This involves all three campus trade unions – UCU, UNISON and Unite – as well as the Scottish union EIS.  We are currently planning our joint local strategy and will be meeting with sister unions later this week.  Once we have firm plans in place we will send these out to you.  In the meantime we would ask you to:

Publicise the Pay Campaign as widely as possible within your department/academic unit by printing out and displaying the attached posters/leaflets.  These are intended to get students and non-members thinking about the action, so the more people that see these, the better.

*Poster 1 http://www.ucu.org.uk/media/pdf/k/8/ucu_hepay_a4stacksposter.pdf

*Poster 2 http://www.ucu.org.uk/media/pdf/l/6/ucu_hepay_a4bulgeposter.pdf

*Leaflet 1: http://www.ucu.org.uk/media/pdf/2/t/ucu_hepay_stacksflyer.pdf

*Leaflet 2: http://www.ucu.org.uk/media/pdf/m/g/ucu_hepay_bulgeflyer.pdf

Talk to students and colleagues about the action and explain why you are taking part.

Sign the online petition calling for University management to urge UCEA to return to the negotiating table  http://www.fairpayinhe.org.uk/

We are aware that University management are continuing to send out Faculty-wide emails asking that “union members who intend to take strike action inform their line manager by email or writing as soon as possible”.  We would reiterate that you do NOT have to alert your line manager about your decision to take strike action in advance.  When asked afterwards, however, you MUST answer truthfully.  See UCU strike FAQs here:  http://fairpay.web.ucu.org.uk/strike-questions/

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 Thirdly, as part of the ongoing dispute, we would like to remind members that we are still working to contract – further information on what this means and how you can support this action can be found here: http://fairpay.web.ucu.org.uk/working-to-contract-what-action-is-the-union-asking-me-to-take/

Thanks for your continued support

Southampton UCU